RI-02 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Magaziner 95% chance
- Seth Magaziner (D)+1% past 7 days95%
- Victor Mellor (R)0% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Magaziner95%
- Mellor4%
Chance over time, past month: Magaziner from 96% to 95%; Mellor from 3% to 4%.
| Date | Magaziner | Mellor |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 94% | 5% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Magaziner by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Magaziner +11.9 to Magaziner +31.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mellor wins | 7% |
| Magaziner by 0–5 | <1% |
| Magaziner by 5–10 | <1% |
| Magaziner by 10–15 | 5% |
| Magaziner by 15–20 | 35% |
| Magaziner by 20–25 | 23% |
| Magaziner by 25–30 | 16% |
| Magaziner by 30–35 | 8% |
| Magaziner by 35+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Seth Magaziner (D)