RI-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Amo 99% chance
- Gabe Amo (D)0% past 7 days99%
- Kellie Keenan (R)0% past 7 days<1%
Chance over time
- Amo99%
- Keenan<1%
Chance over time, past month: Amo from 93% to 99%; Keenan from 5% to <1%.
| Date | Amo | Keenan |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 99% | <1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 99% | <1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Amo by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Amo +27.2 to Amo +45
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Keenan wins | <1% |
| Amo by 0–10 | 2% |
| Amo by 10–20 | <1% |
| Amo by 20–25 | 3% |
| Amo by 25–30 | 10% |
| Amo by 30–35 | 25% |
| Amo by 35–40 | 21% |
| Amo by 40–45 | 28% |
| Amo by 45–50 | 7% |
| Amo by 50+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Gabe Amo (D)