TX-06 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Ellzey >99% chance
- Danny Minton (D)-2% past 7 days<1%
- Jake Ellzey (R)+4% past 7 days>99%
Chance over time
- Minton<1%
- Ellzey>99%
Chance over time, past month: Minton from 5% to <1%; Ellzey from 96% to >99%.
| Date | Minton | Ellzey |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 1% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | <1% | >99% |
Projected margin
Most likely Ellzey by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Ellzey +25.2 to Ellzey +5.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ellzey by 35+ | 3% |
| Ellzey by 30–35 | 4% |
| Ellzey by 25–30 | 4% |
| Ellzey by 20–25 | 17% |
| Ellzey by 15–20 | 29% |
| Ellzey by 10–15 | 19% |
| Ellzey by 5–10 | 16% |
| Ellzey by 0–5 | 4% |
| Minton wins | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-06 member was elected on different lines.