TX-19 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Sell 97% chance
- Kyle Rable (D)+1% past 7 days2%
- Tom Sell (R)-1% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Rable2%
- Sell97%
Chance over time, past month: Rable from 1% to 2%; Sell from 99% to 97%.
| Date | Rable | Sell |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 1% | 99% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 1% | 99% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 1% | 99% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Sell by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Sell +49.8 to Sell +27.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sell by 55+ | 3% |
| Sell by 50–55 | 7% |
| Sell by 45–50 | 12% |
| Sell by 40–45 | 17% |
| Sell by 35–40 | 29% |
| Sell by 30–35 | 18% |
| Sell by 25–30 | 10% |
| Sell by 15–25 | 4% |
| Sell by 0–15 | 1% |
| Rable wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-19 member was elected on different lines.