IN-07 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Carson 98% chance
- André Carson (D)+1% past 7 days98%
- Patrick McAuley (R)0% past 7 days<1%
Chance over time
- Carson98%
- McAuley<1%
Chance over time, past month: Carson from 97% to 98%; McAuley from <1% to <1%.
| Date | Carson | McAuley |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | <1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | <1% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | <1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Carson by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Carson +31.2 to Carson +55.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| McAuley wins | <1% |
| Carson by 0–20 | 4% |
| Carson by 20–30 | 4% |
| Carson by 30–35 | 9% |
| Carson by 35–40 | 6% |
| Carson by 40–45 | 25% |
| Carson by 45–50 | 21% |
| Carson by 50–55 | 21% |
| Carson by 55–60 | 8% |
| Carson by 60+ | 3% |