IN-03 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Stutzman 95% chance
- Kelly Thompson (D)0% past 7 days5%
- Marlin Stutzman (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Thompson5%
- Stutzman95%
Chance over time, past month: Thompson from 5% to 5%; Stutzman from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Thompson | Stutzman |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Stutzman by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Stutzman +32.5 to Stutzman +13.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Stutzman by 40+ | 5% |
| Stutzman by 35–40 | 3% |
| Stutzman by 30–35 | 5% |
| Stutzman by 25–30 | 22% |
| Stutzman by 20–25 | 31% |
| Stutzman by 15–20 | 22% |
| Stutzman by 10–15 | 6% |
| Stutzman by 0–10 | 1% |
| Thompson wins | 5% |