IN-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Spartz 85% chance
- J. D. Ford (D)-4% past 7 days14%
- Victoria Spartz (R)+5% past 7 days85%
Chance over time
- Ford14%
- Spartz85%
Chance over time, past month: Ford from 16% to 14%; Spartz from 84% to 85%.
| Date | Ford | Spartz |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 19% | 81% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 14% | 85% |
Projected margin
Most likely Spartz by 12–15 · 8 in 10: Spartz +16.6 to Ford +1.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Spartz by 21+ | 4% |
| Spartz by 18–21 | 2% |
| Spartz by 15–18 | 7% |
| Spartz by 12–15 | 21% |
| Spartz by 9–12 | 15% |
| Spartz by 6–9 | 16% |
| Spartz by 3–6 | 13% |
| Spartz by 0–3 | 7% |
| Ford by 0–3 | 9% |
| Ford by 3+ | 5% |