MI-04 House forecast
Toss up2024 lines
Polls close
McCann 52% chance
- Sean McCann (D)+3% past 7 days52%
- Bill Huizenga (R)-4% past 7 days49%
Chance over time
- McCann52%
- Huizenga49%
Chance over time, past month: McCann from 49% to 52%; Huizenga from 53% to 49%.
| Date | McCann | Huizenga |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 49% | 53% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 49% | 53% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 49% | 53% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 49% | 53% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 52% | 49% |
Projected margin
Most likely Huizenga by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Huizenga +10.4 to McCann +8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Huizenga by 12+ | 5% |
| Huizenga by 9–12 | 10% |
| Huizenga by 6–9 | 6% |
| Huizenga by 3–6 | 7% |
| Huizenga by 0–3 | 22% |
| McCann by 0–3 | 17% |
| McCann by 3–6 | 14% |
| McCann by 6–9 | 14% |
| McCann by 9–12 | 2% |
| McCann by 12+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where McCann wins, Democrats win the House in 96 of 100. Where Huizenga wins, in 87 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Bill Huizenga (R)
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