MI-08 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Rivet 95% chance
- Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)-1% past 7 days95%
- Thomas Smith (R)+1% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Rivet95%
- Smith5%
Chance over time, past month: Rivet from 92% to 95%; Smith from 6% to 5%.
| Date | Rivet | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 93% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
Projected margin
Most likely Rivet by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Rivet +9.5 to Rivet +24.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Smith wins | 3% |
| Rivet by 0–5 | 4% |
| Rivet by 5–10 | 4% |
| Rivet by 10–15 | 17% |
| Rivet by 15–20 | 34% |
| Rivet by 20–25 | 31% |
| Rivet by 25–30 | 7% |
| Rivet by 30+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)
More in Michigan
Ballot measures
- Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?No 90%