MI-09 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
McClain 96% chance
- Ray Pooley (D)0% past 7 days4%
- Lisa McClain (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Pooley4%
- McClain96%
Chance over time, past month: Pooley from 5% to 4%; McClain from 96% to 96%.
| Date | Pooley | McClain |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 6% | 96% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 4% | 97% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely McClain by 15–20 · 8 in 10: McClain +42.7 to McClain +15.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| McClain by 45+ | 8% |
| McClain by 40–45 | 4% |
| McClain by 35–40 | 3% |
| McClain by 30–35 | 22% |
| McClain by 25–30 | 15% |
| McClain by 20–25 | 17% |
| McClain by 15–20 | 22% |
| McClain by 5–15 | 4% |
| McClain by 0–5 | 1% |
| Pooley wins | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Lisa C. McClain (R)
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Ballot measures
- Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?No 90%