MI-11 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Moss 96% chance
- Jeremy Moss (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Ethan Baker (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Moss96%
- Baker3%
Chance over time, past month: Moss from 97% to 96%; Baker from 3% to 3%.
| Date | Moss | Baker |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Moss by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Moss +15.7 to Moss +33.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Baker wins | 1% |
| Moss by 0–10 | 1% |
| Moss by 10–15 | 4% |
| Moss by 15–20 | 24% |
| Moss by 20–25 | 16% |
| Moss by 25–30 | 28% |
| Moss by 30–35 | 21% |
| Moss by 35–40 | 2% |
| Moss by 40+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Haley M. Stevens (D)
More in Michigan
Ballot measures
- Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?No 90%