MI-10 House forecast
Lean Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Hines 67% chance
- Christina Hines (D)+3% past 7 days67%
- Mike Bouchard (R)0% past 7 days34%
Chance over time
- Hines67%
- Bouchard34%
Chance over time, past month: Hines from 66% to 67%; Bouchard from 33% to 34%.
| Date | Hines | Bouchard |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 66% | 33% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 66% | 35% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 65% | 34% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 65% | 34% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 67% | 34% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Hines wins, Democrats win the House in 95 of 100. Where Bouchard wins, in 84 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. John James (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
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Ballot measures
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