HI-02 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; vote centers are open too
Tokuda 96% chance
- Jill Tokuda (D)+1% past 7 days96%
- Brenton Awa (R)0% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Tokuda96%
- Awa4%
Chance over time, past month: Tokuda from 95% to 96%; Awa from 5% to 4%.
| Date | Tokuda | Awa |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Tokuda by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Tokuda +23.9 to Tokuda +46.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Awa wins | 1% |
| Tokuda by 0–10 | <1% |
| Tokuda by 10–20 | 1% |
| Tokuda by 20–25 | 11% |
| Tokuda by 25–30 | 3% |
| Tokuda by 30–35 | 29% |
| Tokuda by 35–40 | 20% |
| Tokuda by 40–45 | 21% |
| Tokuda by 45–50 | 12% |
| Tokuda by 50+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Jill N. Tokuda (D)