HI-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; vote centers are open too
Case 96% chance
- Ed Case (D)+1% past 7 days96%
- Adriel Lam (R)-1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Case97%
- Lam3%
Chance over time, past month: Case from 96% to 97%; Lam from 4% to 3%.
| Date | Case | Lam |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Case by 50–55 · 8 in 10: Case +34.5 to Case +55
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lam wins | <1% |
| Case by 0–15 | <1% |
| Case by 15–25 | <1% |
| Case by 25–30 | <1% |
| Case by 30–35 | 10% |
| Case by 35–40 | 13% |
| Case by 40–45 | 9% |
| Case by 45–50 | 18% |
| Case by 50–55 | 35% |
| Case by 55+ | 14% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Ed Case (D)