MI-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Walberg 95% chance
- Christian Vukasovich (D)+1% past 7 days4%
- Tim Walberg (R)+2% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Vukasovich5%
- Walberg96%
Chance over time, past month: Vukasovich from 6% to 5%; Walberg from 95% to 96%.
| Date | Vukasovich | Walberg |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 7% | 92% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Walberg by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Walberg +29.7 to Walberg +11.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Walberg by 40+ | <1% |
| Walberg by 35–40 | 1% |
| Walberg by 30–35 | 7% |
| Walberg by 25–30 | 20% |
| Walberg by 20–25 | 33% |
| Walberg by 15–20 | 19% |
| Walberg by 10–15 | 15% |
| Walberg by 0–10 | 1% |
| Vukasovich wins | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Tim Walberg (R)
More in Michigan
Ballot measures
- Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?No 90%