MI-12 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Tlaib 98% chance
- Rashida Tlaib (D)0% past 7 days98%
- James Hooper (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Tlaib98%
- Hooper1%
Chance over time, past month: Tlaib from 97% to 98%; Hooper from <1% to 1%.
| Date | Tlaib | Hooper |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | <1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Tlaib by 55–60 · 8 in 10: Tlaib +37.1 to Tlaib +58.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hooper wins | <1% |
| Tlaib by 0–25 | 3% |
| Tlaib by 25–35 | 4% |
| Tlaib by 35–40 | 7% |
| Tlaib by 40–45 | 10% |
| Tlaib by 45–50 | 26% |
| Tlaib by 50–55 | 18% |
| Tlaib by 55–60 | 28% |
| Tlaib by 60–65 | 2% |
| Tlaib by 65+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D)
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Ballot measures
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