MI-13 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
McKinney 98% chance
- Donavan McKinney (D)0% past 7 days98%
- T.P. Nykoriak (R)0% past 7 days<1%
Chance over time
- McKinney98%
- Nykoriak<1%
Chance over time, past month: McKinney from 98% to 98%; Nykoriak from 1% to <1%.
| Date | McKinney | Nykoriak |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 99% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
Projected margin
Most likely McKinney by 50–55 · 8 in 10: McKinney +40.1 to McKinney +65
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Nykoriak wins | 1% |
| McKinney by 0–25 | 4% |
| McKinney by 25–35 | 1% |
| McKinney by 35–40 | 4% |
| McKinney by 40–45 | 11% |
| McKinney by 45–50 | 20% |
| McKinney by 50–55 | 22% |
| McKinney by 55–60 | 21% |
| McKinney by 60–65 | 5% |
| McKinney by 65+ | 11% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Shri Thanedar (D)
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Ballot measures
- Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?No 90%