NY-07 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Valdez 97% chance
- Claire Valdez (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Melvin Rivera (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Valdez97%
- Rivera1%
Chance over time, past month: Valdez from 96% to 97%; Rivera from 1% to 1%.
| Date | Valdez | Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Valdez by 60–65 · 8 in 10: Valdez +42.7 to Valdez +68.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rivera wins | <1% |
| Valdez by 0–30 | <1% |
| Valdez by 30–40 | <1% |
| Valdez by 40–45 | 17% |
| Valdez by 45–50 | 2% |
| Valdez by 50–55 | 13% |
| Valdez by 55–60 | 25% |
| Valdez by 60–65 | 25% |
| Valdez by 65–70 | 9% |
| Valdez by 70+ | 8% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Nydia M. Velázquez (D)