NY-15 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Torres 98% chance
- Ritchie Torres (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Stylo Sapaskis (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Torres98%
- Sapaskis2%
Chance over time, past month: Torres from 98% to 98%; Sapaskis from <1% to 2%.
| Date | Torres | Sapaskis |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Torres by 65–70 · 8 in 10: Torres +52 to Torres +73.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sapaskis wins | <1% |
| Torres by 0–35 | 1% |
| Torres by 35–45 | 3% |
| Torres by 45–50 | 1% |
| Torres by 50–55 | 11% |
| Torres by 55–60 | 16% |
| Torres by 60–65 | 23% |
| Torres by 65–70 | 28% |
| Torres by 70–75 | 9% |
| Torres by 75+ | 6% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Ritchie Torres (D)