NY-19 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Riley 96% chance
- Josh Riley (D)-2% past 7 days96%
- Peter Oberacker (R)+1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Riley96%
- Oberacker3%
Chance over time, past month: Riley from 95% to 96%; Oberacker from 5% to 3%.
| Date | Riley | Oberacker |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 99% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Josh Riley (D)