NY-06 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Meng 97% chance
- Grace Meng (D)-1% past 7 days97%
- Joseph Chou (R)0% past 7 days<1%
Chance over time
- Meng97%
- Chou<1%
Chance over time, past month: Meng from 96% to 97%; Chou from 5% to <1%.
| Date | Meng | Chou |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 99% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | <1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | <1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Meng by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Meng +20.4 to Meng +40.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Chou wins | <1% |
| Meng by 0–5 | 1% |
| Meng by 5–15 | 1% |
| Meng by 15–20 | 6% |
| Meng by 20–25 | 23% |
| Meng by 25–30 | 20% |
| Meng by 30–35 | 20% |
| Meng by 35–40 | 17% |
| Meng by 40–45 | 11% |
| Meng by 45+ | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Grace Meng (D)