AL-06 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Palmer 97% chance
- Maurice Mercer (D)-1% past 7 days2%
- Gary Palmer (R)+1% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Mercer2%
- Palmer97%
Chance over time, past month: Mercer from 4% to 2%; Palmer from 96% to 97%.
| Date | Mercer | Palmer |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Palmer by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Palmer +43.3 to Palmer +21
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Palmer by 50+ | 4% |
| Palmer by 45–50 | 5% |
| Palmer by 40–45 | 5% |
| Palmer by 35–40 | 14% |
| Palmer by 30–35 | 25% |
| Palmer by 25–30 | 25% |
| Palmer by 20–25 | 16% |
| Palmer by 10–20 | 3% |
| Palmer by 0–10 | 3% |
| Mercer wins | <1% |