AL-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Strong 96% chance
- Andrew Sneed (D)0% past 7 days4%
- Dale Strong (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Sneed4%
- Strong96%
Chance over time, past month: Sneed from 6% to 4%; Strong from 95% to 96%.
| Date | Sneed | Strong |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Strong by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Strong +38.2 to Strong +11.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Strong by 40+ | 7% |
| Strong by 35–40 | 7% |
| Strong by 30–35 | 9% |
| Strong by 25–30 | 14% |
| Strong by 20–25 | 17% |
| Strong by 15–20 | 26% |
| Strong by 10–15 | 12% |
| Strong by 0–10 | 3% |
| Sneed wins | 4% |