AL Senate forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Moore 99% chance
- Everett Wess (D)-1% past 7 days1%
- Barry Moore (R)+1% past 7 days99%
Chance over time
- Wess1%
- Moore99%
Chance over time, past month: Wess from 5% to 1%; Moore from 95% to 99%.
| Date | Wess | Moore |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 1% | 99% |
Projected margin
Most likely Moore by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Moore +29.8 to Moore +9.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Moore by 35+ | 5% |
| Moore by 30–35 | 4% |
| Moore by 25–30 | 21% |
| Moore by 20–25 | 13% |
| Moore by 15–20 | 26% |
| Moore by 10–15 | 21% |
| Moore by 5–10 | 4% |
| Moore by 0–5 | 5% |
| Wess wins | 1% |