OR Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time: 11:00 PM ET in most of Oregon, 10:00 PM ET in Mountain-time Malheur County. Every voter gets a mail ballot
Merkley 98% chance
- Jeff Merkley (D)0% past 7 days98%
- David Brock Smith (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Merkley98%
- Smith2%
Chance over time, past month: Merkley from 98% to 98%; Smith from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Merkley | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Merkley by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Merkley +6.8 to Merkley +34.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Smith wins | 1% |
| Merkley by 0–5 | 8% |
| Merkley by 5–10 | 4% |
| Merkley by 10–15 | 13% |
| Merkley by 15–20 | 20% |
| Merkley by 20–25 | 17% |
| Merkley by 25–30 | 20% |
| Merkley by 30–35 | 8% |
| Merkley by 35+ | 9% |