OR-06 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot
Salinas 97% chance
- Andrea Salinas (D)+2% past 7 days97%
- David Russ (R)-1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Salinas96%
- Russ4%
Chance over time, past month: Salinas from 96% to 96%; Russ from 1% to 4%.
| Date | Salinas | Russ |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Salinas by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Salinas +13.2 to Salinas +32.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Russ wins | <1% |
| Salinas by 0–5 | <1% |
| Salinas by 5–10 | 4% |
| Salinas by 10–15 | 9% |
| Salinas by 15–20 | 13% |
| Salinas by 20–25 | 28% |
| Salinas by 25–30 | 32% |
| Salinas by 30–35 | 7% |
| Salinas by 35+ | 6% |