PA-01 House forecast
Lean Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Fitzpatrick 59% chance
- Bob Harvie (D)+3% past 7 days41%
- Brian Fitzpatrick (R)-4% past 7 days59%
Chance over time
- Harvie41%
- Fitzpatrick59%
Chance over time, past month: Harvie from 40% to 41%; Fitzpatrick from 59% to 59%.
| Date | Harvie | Fitzpatrick |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 40% | 62% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 34% | 65% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 39% | 61% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 39% | 63% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 41% | 59% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Harvie wins, Democrats win the House in 97 of 100. Where Fitzpatrick wins, in 88 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)