PA-08 House forecast
Likely Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Cognetti 72% chance
- Paige Cognetti (D)-1% past 7 days72%
- Rob Bresnahan (R)0% past 7 days28%
Chance over time
- Cognetti72%
- Bresnahan28%
Chance over time, past month: Cognetti from 66% to 72%; Bresnahan from 35% to 28%.
| Date | Cognetti | Bresnahan |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 66% | 35% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 66% | 32% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 70% | 28% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 72% | 28% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 72% | 29% |
Projected margin
Most likely Cognetti by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Bresnahan +7.1 to Cognetti +10.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bresnahan by 12+ | <1% |
| Bresnahan by 9–12 | 6% |
| Bresnahan by 6–9 | 7% |
| Bresnahan by 3–6 | 6% |
| Bresnahan by 0–3 | 17% |
| Cognetti by 0–3 | 19% |
| Cognetti by 3–6 | 21% |
| Cognetti by 6–9 | 11% |
| Cognetti by 9–12 | 7% |
| Cognetti by 12+ | 7% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Cognetti wins, Democrats win the House in 95 of 100. Where Bresnahan wins, in 84 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr. (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.