PA-10 House forecast
Likely Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Stelson 80% chance
- Janelle Stelson (D)0% past 7 days80%
- Scott Perry (R)0% past 7 days20%
Chance over time
- Stelson80%
- Perry20%
Chance over time, past month: Stelson from 79% to 80%; Perry from 21% to 20%.
| Date | Stelson | Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 79% | 21% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 81% | 18% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 80% | 21% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 80% | 20% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 80% | 20% |
Projected margin
Most likely Stelson by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Perry +1.7 to Stelson +14.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Perry by 6+ | 3% |
| Perry by 3–6 | 3% |
| Perry by 0–3 | 10% |
| Stelson by 0–3 | 11% |
| Stelson by 3–6 | 17% |
| Stelson by 6–9 | 22% |
| Stelson by 9–12 | 13% |
| Stelson by 12–15 | 15% |
| Stelson by 15–18 | 3% |
| Stelson by 18+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Stelson wins, Democrats win the House in 94 of 100. Where Perry wins, in 81 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Scott Perry (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.