PA Governor forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close
Shapiro 98% chance
- Josh Shapiro (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Stacy Garrity (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Shapiro98%
- Garrity3%
Chance over time, past month: Shapiro from 97% to 98%; Garrity from 3% to 3%.
| Date | Shapiro | Garrity |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Shapiro by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Shapiro +14.2 to Shapiro +30
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Garrity wins | <1% |
| Shapiro by 0–5 | 3% |
| Shapiro by 5–10 | 5% |
| Shapiro by 10–15 | 3% |
| Shapiro by 15–20 | 14% |
| Shapiro by 20–25 | 22% |
| Shapiro by 25–30 | 29% |
| Shapiro by 30+ | 24% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Democrats.