TN Governor forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Eastern, 7:00 PM Central
Blackburn 94% chance
- Jerri Green (D)-1% past 7 days5%
- Marsha Blackburn (R)-1% past 7 days94%
Chance over time
- Green5%
- Blackburn94%
Chance over time, past month: Green from 5% to 5%; Blackburn from 96% to 94%.
| Date | Green | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 94% |
Projected margin
Most likely Blackburn by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Blackburn +30.3 to Blackburn +6.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Blackburn by 40+ | 2% |
| Blackburn by 35–40 | 3% |
| Blackburn by 30–35 | 5% |
| Blackburn by 25–30 | 4% |
| Blackburn by 20–25 | 29% |
| Blackburn by 15–20 | 24% |
| Blackburn by 10–15 | 18% |
| Blackburn by 5–10 | 8% |
| Blackburn by 0–5 | <1% |
| Green wins | 7% |