TN-03 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Eastern, 7:00 PM Central
Fleischmann 96% chance
- Anna Golladay (D)0% past 7 days4%
- Chuck Fleischmann (R)-1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Golladay4%
- Fleischmann96%
Chance over time, past month: Golladay from 4% to 4%; Fleischmann from 95% to 96%.
| Date | Golladay | Fleischmann |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Fleischmann by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Fleischmann +36.4 to Fleischmann +18.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fleischmann by 45+ | 2% |
| Fleischmann by 40–45 | 3% |
| Fleischmann by 35–40 | 7% |
| Fleischmann by 30–35 | 26% |
| Fleischmann by 25–30 | 26% |
| Fleischmann by 20–25 | 25% |
| Fleischmann by 15–20 | 5% |
| Fleischmann by 5–15 | 6% |
| Fleischmann by 0–5 | <1% |
| Golladay wins | <1% |