TN-02 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Eastern, 7:00 PM Central
Burchett 96% chance
- Michaela Barnett (D)0% past 7 days4%
- Tim Burchett (R)+1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Barnett4%
- Burchett96%
Chance over time, past month: Barnett from 6% to 4%; Burchett from 96% to 96%.
| Date | Barnett | Burchett |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 6% | 96% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Burchett by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Burchett +34.5 to Burchett +13.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Burchett by 40+ | 6% |
| Burchett by 35–40 | 2% |
| Burchett by 30–35 | 20% |
| Burchett by 25–30 | 24% |
| Burchett by 20–25 | 28% |
| Burchett by 15–20 | 8% |
| Burchett by 10–15 | 4% |
| Burchett by 0–10 | 3% |
| Barnett wins | 5% |