TN-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Eastern, 7:00 PM Central
Hatcher 92% chance
- Chaz Molder (D)+4% past 7 days9%
- Charlie Hatcher (R)-3% past 7 days92%
Chance over time
- Molder9%
- Hatcher92%
Chance over time, past month: Molder from 12% to 9%; Hatcher from 88% to 92%.
| Date | Molder | Hatcher |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 6% | 92% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 9% | 92% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hatcher by 9–12 · 8 in 10: Hatcher +17.6 to Hatcher +2.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hatcher by 21+ | 5% |
| Hatcher by 18–21 | 3% |
| Hatcher by 15–18 | 12% |
| Hatcher by 12–15 | 17% |
| Hatcher by 9–12 | 21% |
| Hatcher by 6–9 | 11% |
| Hatcher by 3–6 | 20% |
| Hatcher by 0–3 | 8% |
| Molder by 0–3 | 1% |
| Molder by 3+ | 1% |