TX-09 House forecast
Likely Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Mealer 84% chance
- Leticia Gutierrez (D)-1% past 7 days17%
- Alex Mealer (R)0% past 7 days84%
Chance over time
- Gutierrez17%
- Mealer84%
Chance over time, past month: Gutierrez from 14% to 17%; Mealer from 87% to 84%.
| Date | Gutierrez | Mealer |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 18% | 81% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 20% | 81% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 18% | 84% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 17% | 84% |
Projected margin
Most likely Mealer by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Mealer +15.6 to Gutierrez +1.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mealer by 18+ | 1% |
| Mealer by 15–18 | 11% |
| Mealer by 12–15 | 16% |
| Mealer by 9–12 | 17% |
| Mealer by 6–9 | 19% |
| Mealer by 3–6 | 16% |
| Mealer by 0–3 | 7% |
| Gutierrez by 0–3 | 6% |
| Gutierrez by 3–6 | 2% |
| Gutierrez by 6+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-09 member was elected on different lines.