TX-33 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Allred 97% chance
- Colin Allred (D)-1% past 7 days97%
- Patrick Gillespie (R)+1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Allred97%
- Gillespie2%
Chance over time, past month: Allred from 96% to 97%; Gillespie from 1% to 2%.
| Date | Allred | Gillespie |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Allred by 50–55 · 8 in 10: Allred +34.6 to Allred +54.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Gillespie wins | <1% |
| Allred by 0–20 | 2% |
| Allred by 20–30 | 1% |
| Allred by 30–35 | 7% |
| Allred by 35–40 | 20% |
| Allred by 40–45 | 11% |
| Allred by 45–50 | 23% |
| Allred by 50–55 | 29% |
| Allred by 55–60 | 6% |
| Allred by 60+ | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-33 member was elected on different lines.