TX-18 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Menefee 98% chance
- Christian Menefee (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Ronald Whitfield (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Menefee98%
- Whitfield1%
Chance over time, past month: Menefee from 97% to 98%; Whitfield from 3% to 1%.
| Date | Menefee | Whitfield |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Menefee by 60–65 · 8 in 10: Menefee +52.3 to Menefee +70.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Whitfield wins | <1% |
| Menefee by 0–35 | 2% |
| Menefee by 35–45 | 1% |
| Menefee by 45–50 | 1% |
| Menefee by 50–55 | 12% |
| Menefee by 55–60 | 19% |
| Menefee by 60–65 | 38% |
| Menefee by 65–70 | 17% |
| Menefee by 70–75 | 8% |
| Menefee by 75+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-18 member was elected on different lines.