TX-11 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Pfluger 97% chance
- Claire Reynolds (D)0% past 7 days2%
- August Pfluger (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Reynolds3%
- Pfluger97%
Chance over time, past month: Reynolds from 6% to 3%; Pfluger from 94% to 97%.
| Date | Reynolds | Pfluger |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Pfluger by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Pfluger +37.8 to Pfluger +15.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Pfluger by 45+ | 1% |
| Pfluger by 40–45 | 5% |
| Pfluger by 35–40 | 9% |
| Pfluger by 30–35 | 22% |
| Pfluger by 25–30 | 27% |
| Pfluger by 20–25 | 16% |
| Pfluger by 15–20 | 11% |
| Pfluger by 5–15 | 4% |
| Pfluger by 0–5 | 3% |
| Reynolds wins | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-11 member was elected on different lines.