NJ-06 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Pallone 96% chance
- Frank Pallone (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Hillary Herzig (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Pallone97%
- Herzig2%
Chance over time, past month: Pallone from 95% to 97%; Herzig from 5% to 2%.
| Date | Pallone | Herzig |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 93% | 5% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Pallone by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Pallone +13.8 to Pallone +33.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Herzig wins | <1% |
| Pallone by 0–10 | <1% |
| Pallone by 10–15 | 13% |
| Pallone by 15–20 | 13% |
| Pallone by 20–25 | 30% |
| Pallone by 25–30 | 23% |
| Pallone by 30–35 | 14% |
| Pallone by 35–40 | 4% |
| Pallone by 40+ | 3% |