NJ-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Smith 98% chance
- Rachel Peace (D)-1% past 7 days2%
- Chris Smith (R)+2% past 7 days98%
Chance over time
- Peace2%
- Smith98%
Chance over time, past month: Peace from 5% to 2%; Smith from 96% to 98%.
| Date | Peace | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
Projected margin
Most likely Smith by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Smith +36.7 to Smith +15.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Smith by 40+ | 1% |
| Smith by 35–40 | 13% |
| Smith by 30–35 | 18% |
| Smith by 25–30 | 24% |
| Smith by 20–25 | 12% |
| Smith by 15–20 | 22% |
| Smith by 10–15 | 3% |
| Smith by 0–10 | 6% |
| Peace wins | 1% |