NJ-11 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Mejia 96% chance
- Analilia Mejia (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Joe Hathaway (R)0% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Mejia96%
- Hathaway4%
Chance over time, past month: Mejia from 96% to 96%; Hathaway from 5% to 4%.
| Date | Mejia | Hathaway |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Mejia by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Mejia +4.7 to Mejia +32.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hathaway wins | 6% |
| Mejia by 0–5 | 4% |
| Mejia by 5–10 | 6% |
| Mejia by 10–15 | 3% |
| Mejia by 15–20 | 17% |
| Mejia by 20–25 | 27% |
| Mejia by 25–30 | 19% |
| Mejia by 30–35 | 13% |
| Mejia by 35+ | 4% |