NJ-05 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Gottheimer 97% chance
- Josh Gottheimer (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Sean Kirrane (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Gottheimer95%
- Kirrane1%
Chance over time, past month: Gottheimer from 97% to 95%; Kirrane from 2% to 1%.
| Date | Gottheimer | Kirrane |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Gottheimer by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Gottheimer +12.9 to Gottheimer +32.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kirrane wins | <1% |
| Gottheimer by 0–5 | 1% |
| Gottheimer by 5–10 | 5% |
| Gottheimer by 10–15 | 8% |
| Gottheimer by 15–20 | 22% |
| Gottheimer by 20–25 | 29% |
| Gottheimer by 25–30 | 21% |
| Gottheimer by 30–35 | 10% |
| Gottheimer by 35+ | 4% |