NJ Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close
Booker 97% chance
- Cory Booker (D)-1% past 7 days97%
- Justin Murphy (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Booker97%
- Murphy3%
Chance over time, past month: Booker from 97% to 97%; Murphy from 4% to 3%.
| Date | Booker | Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Booker by 21+ · 8 in 10: Booker +2.9 to Booker +21
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Murphy by 3+ | 3% |
| Murphy by 0–3 | 2% |
| Booker by 0–3 | 5% |
| Booker by 3–6 | 3% |
| Booker by 6–9 | 6% |
| Booker by 9–12 | 5% |
| Booker by 12–15 | 9% |
| Booker by 15–18 | 11% |
| Booker by 18–21 | 13% |
| Booker by 21+ | 43% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 2 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Booker wins, Democrats win the Senate in 66 of 100. Where Murphy wins, in 20 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Democrats.