DE Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close
Democrats 98% chance
- Democrats -1% past 7 days98%
- Republicans +1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Democrats98%
- Republicans2%
Chance over time, past month: Democrats from 97% to 98%; Republicans from 3% to 2%.
| Date | Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 99% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 99% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Democrat by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Democrat +14.7 to Democrat +40.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Republican wins | 2% |
| Democrat by 0–10 | 3% |
| Democrat by 10–15 | 6% |
| Democrat by 15–20 | 5% |
| Democrat by 20–25 | 15% |
| Democrat by 25–30 | 27% |
| Democrat by 30–35 | 19% |
| Democrat by 35–40 | 13% |
| Democrat by 40–45 | 6% |
| Democrat by 45+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where the Democrat wins, Democrats win the Senate in 66 of 100. Where the Republican wins, in 19 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Democrats.