DE-AL House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Democrats 98% chance
- Democrats 0% past 7 days98%
- Republicans 0% past 7 days<1%
Chance over time
- Democrats98%
- Republicans<1%
Chance over time, past month: Democrats from 95% to 98%; Republicans from 5% to <1%.
| Date | Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Democrat by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Democrat +7.6 to Democrat +34.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Republican wins | 4% |
| Democrat by 0–10 | 7% |
| Democrat by 10–15 | 1% |
| Democrat by 15–20 | 4% |
| Democrat by 20–25 | 21% |
| Democrat by 25–30 | 34% |
| Democrat by 30–35 | 19% |
| Democrat by 35–40 | 4% |
| Democrat by 40+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Sarah McBride (D)