MN-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
McCollum 96% chance
- Betty McCollum (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Paul Wikstrom (R)-1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- McCollum96%
- Wikstrom3%
Chance over time, past month: McCollum from 95% to 96%; Wikstrom from 4% to 3%.
| Date | McCollum | Wikstrom |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely McCollum by 45–50 · 8 in 10: McCollum +34.6 to McCollum +60
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wikstrom wins | <1% |
| McCollum by 0–20 | 4% |
| McCollum by 20–30 | 3% |
| McCollum by 30–35 | 2% |
| McCollum by 35–40 | 15% |
| McCollum by 40–45 | 21% |
| McCollum by 45–50 | 26% |
| McCollum by 50–55 | 14% |
| McCollum by 55–60 | 3% |
| McCollum by 60+ | 11% |