MN-01 House forecast
Likely Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Finstad 75% chance
- Jake Johnson (D)+2% past 7 days26%
- Brad Finstad (R)-1% past 7 days75%
Chance over time
- Johnson26%
- Finstad75%
Chance over time, past month: Johnson from 24% to 26%; Finstad from 76% to 75%.
| Date | Johnson | Finstad |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 24% | 77% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 25% | 75% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 19% | 77% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 24% | 76% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 26% | 75% |
Projected margin
Most likely Finstad by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Finstad +15.3 to Johnson +4.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Finstad by 18+ | 4% |
| Finstad by 15–18 | 7% |
| Finstad by 12–15 | 4% |
| Finstad by 9–12 | 4% |
| Finstad by 6–9 | 12% |
| Finstad by 3–6 | 24% |
| Finstad by 0–3 | 19% |
| Johnson by 0–3 | 13% |
| Johnson by 3–6 | 7% |
| Johnson by 6+ | 6% |