MN-06 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Emmer 95% chance
- Doug Chapin (D)-1% past 7 days2%
- Tom Emmer (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Chapin2%
- Emmer96%
Chance over time, past month: Chapin from 8% to 2%; Emmer from 90% to 96%.
| Date | Chapin | Emmer |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 9% | 91% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Emmer by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Emmer +19.1 to Emmer +6.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Emmer by 30+ | <1% |
| Emmer by 25–30 | 1% |
| Emmer by 20–25 | 2% |
| Emmer by 15–20 | 33% |
| Emmer by 10–15 | 33% |
| Emmer by 5–10 | 26% |
| Emmer by 0–5 | 3% |
| Chapin wins | 1% |