MN-05 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Omar 94% chance
- Ilhan Omar (D)-1% past 7 days94%
- John Nagel (R)0% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Omar94%
- Nagel5%
Chance over time, past month: Omar from 96% to 94%; Nagel from 4% to 5%.
| Date | Omar | Nagel |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 94% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 94% | 5% |
Projected margin
Most likely Omar by 60–65 · 8 in 10: Omar +43.3 to Omar +69.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Nagel wins | 6% |
| Omar by 0–35 | 1% |
| Omar by 35–45 | 4% |
| Omar by 45–50 | 11% |
| Omar by 50–55 | 16% |
| Omar by 55–60 | 23% |
| Omar by 60–65 | 23% |
| Omar by 65–70 | 8% |
| Omar by 70–75 | 3% |
| Omar by 75+ | 7% |