MI-07 House forecast
Lean Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Lawrence 63% chance
- William Lawrence (D)+1% past 7 days63%
- Tom Barrett (R)-3% past 7 days36%
Chance over time
- Lawrence63%
- Barrett36%
Chance over time, past month: Lawrence from 56% to 63%; Barrett from 45% to 36%.
| Date | Lawrence | Barrett |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 56% | 45% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 56% | 44% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 62% | 39% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 63% | 39% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 63% | 36% |
Projected margin
Most likely Lawrence by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Barrett +7.3 to Lawrence +8.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Barrett by 12+ | 4% |
| Barrett by 9–12 | 2% |
| Barrett by 6–9 | 7% |
| Barrett by 3–6 | 6% |
| Barrett by 0–3 | 19% |
| Lawrence by 0–3 | 20% |
| Lawrence by 3–6 | 21% |
| Lawrence by 6–9 | 12% |
| Lawrence by 9–12 | 5% |
| Lawrence by 12+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Lawrence wins, Democrats win the House in 95 of 100. Where Barrett wins, in 85 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Tom Barrett (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
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Ballot measures
- Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?No 90%